Showing posts with label market news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market news. Show all posts

Friday, July 22, 2016

Bay Area home sales: June median price sets record high

The median price for single-family homes in the Bay Area set yet another record last month, reaching $755,000.

But even as the price tag went up, the number of sales went down, reflecting what by now is an all-too common refrain in the region's housing story: high cost, low supply.

"People are struggling to afford a home, and not finding it," said Andrew LePage, research analyst for CoreLogic, the real estate information service that assembled the data.

June marked the fourth straight month of year-over-year declines in the number of houses sold in the nine counties. In some counties, the trend toward declining sales was even more pronounced. On a year-over-year basis, sales dipped for the fifth month in Santa Clara, San Mateo and Alameda counties. In Contra Costa County, sales were down year-over-year for the third straight month.

Even so, some real estate agents pointed to a silver lining. They reported a leveling of prices in numerous communities and — continuing a months-long trend — a lot less frenzied bidding.

"Buyers are waiting, they're pickier," said Michael Hall, a Pacific Union agent who has an office in Palo Alto and works deals on both sides of the bay. "We still don't have enough inventory, but the buyers are just not willing to throw down all that money. The buyers are telling us where the market is."

Of course, it all depends on one's perspective.

"If it's a pause in the market, then we're only seeing the beginning of it," said LePage. "There's still upward pressure on prices."

Compared to the same period last year, median prices in the East Bay rose 7.4 percent to $550,000 in Contra Costa County and 5.2 percent to $753,000 in Alameda County. The South Bay saw more modest increases, with a 4.9 rise to $1,200,000 in San Mateo County and 3.7 percent hike to $982,500 in Santa Clara County.

Those are daunting price tags. Yet looked at on a month-over-month basis, June prices were actually down just slightly from May in both Santa Clara and Alameda counties. San Mateo County's median price was up slightly from May, but fell short of the record high set back in April. Contra Costa County's median was up a modest 0.9 percent.

Sizing up the market, Shareen Edwards, a first-grade teacher in Sunnyvale, went hunting for a house with her fiance, Joey Grant, an electrician who works in San Mateo County. They began pricing houses that appealed to them and found that a number of those houses were selling for $200,000 or more over the listing price.

"The process for looking for homes in the Bay Area -- I would say it's insane," Edwards said.

Scaling back their search, she and Grant were guided by Hall, their agent, to a modest older house on a cul-de-sac in Redwood City: 1,800 square feet, with three bedrooms, two baths and a small backyard -- a solid family house for a couple that expects to have children.

Their parents contributed to the down payment on the house, which listed for $995,000 and attracted only two offers. "If this were a year ago, there would have been five or six offers," Hall said.

Edwards and Grant won out with a $1,042,000 bid.

"We got lucky," Edwards said. "And our family wanted us to be successful -- otherwise we would've been dead in the water. But this time we didn't get outbid."

About four years ago, Hall and Tricia Soliz, a Pacific Union agent who lives in San Ramon, teamed up to try and capture the growing East Bay market. This month, they tied the knot on a complicated deal -- essentially a three-way trade between the owners of three houses, two in Danville and one in Concord.

Like a game of musical chairs, each set of owners moved to one of the other homes. Each deal hinged on the next, and negotiations dragged out.

"You could feel the market shifting," said Hall, who believes that recent economic turmoil -- first in the U.S., then in China, then in the United Kingdom -- was a shock that "kind of put a cap on this incredible appreciation that we'd been seeing in the last two years."

Buyers "are getting choosier and sellers really haven't adjusted," said Soliz. One of the sellers dug in, expecting an offer more reflective of the 2015 market.

In the end, each deal closed. All the new owners plan to move on the same day at the end of the month, and Soliz plans to videotape the three-way trade.

As part of that trade, Eliot and Ashley Gillum will move from Concord to Danville.

As sellers, Eliot, a sales executive in tech, and his wife found they "needed to be a little less choosy," he said. Their 1,285-square-foot house in Concord, which listed for $499,000, sold for $515,000 after a higher offer fell through.

As a buyer, he had to stretch a few thousand dollars to make the move to pricier Danville. In the end, the Gillums, who have two young children, spent $807,000 on a 1,400-square-foot house next to a park and community swimming pool that listed for $795,000.

But the trade-offs were worth it, in part because Ashley, who directs an after-school program in Danville, will no longer have a lengthy commute with the kids.

"Could we be happier?" Eliot asked. "We're not people who want the big house. We want the family time."

Mission accomplished.

Source: San Jose Mercury News, Richard Scheinin
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_30149003/bay-area-home-sales-june-median-price-sets

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

The 20 Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets in August 2015

Two of the top 20 hottest markets in the U.S. are right here in the San Francisco bay area, one of which is right here in the Silicon Valley; San Jose. This isn't the first article I've seen, or posted on this blog, about how hot this real estate market is here. I always tell my new buyer clients about the strength of the market here. Articles like this are part of the proof.


The 20 Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets in August 2015
San Francisco-shaped key
The colors of the leaves may not be turning yet, but we’re already feeling the first hints of the changing season here at realtor.com®. When our economic research team analyzed our data for the first three weeks of August, it found that the market—which has been seriously tilted in favor of sellers for some time now—is just starting to tip slightly back toward buyers.

Now, don’t get us wrong: Sellers still have the advantage. It’s just that their advantage is being reduced.

“We are now entering the time of the year when both inventory and demand typically reach their peak as the start of the school year takes away a substantial chunk of near-term demand,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of realtor.com.

“This year we’re seeing inventory continue to grow in August,” he continued. “And while overall demand is strong, the trend on median days on market is suggesting that the market is finding more of a balance—and that bodes well for would-be buyers who have been frustrated by the inability to find a home to buy this spring and summer.”

In the first three weeks of August, listings inventory grew 3% over July. The median list price increased to $233,000, up 8% year over year and virtually flat against July. The median number of days on market has increased to 75 days, reflecting the shift in favor of buyers. The metric is down 6% year over year, meaning that the market is still hotter than last year, but the 6% month-over-month gain means that inventory is now moving slower than it has all spring and summer.

The hot list

Our data team reviewed listing views by market as an indicator of buyer demand and median days on market as an indicator of supply. This analysis led to the identification of the 20 hottest medium-size to large markets in the country.

These markets receive 1.8 to 3 times the number of views per listing compared to the national average. These markets are seeing inventory move 29 to 48 days more quickly than the rest of the U.S. They have also seen days on market drop by a combined average of 13% year over year.

20 hottest U.S. real estate markets


  • San Francisco, CA
  • Dallas, TX
  • Denver, CO
  • Vallejo, CA
  • Santa Rosa, CA
  • San Jose, CA
  • San Diego, CA
  • Midland, TX
  • Sacramento, CA
  • Columbus, OH
  • Ann Arbor, MI
  • Santa Cruz, CA
  • Detroit, MI
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Oxnard, CA
  • Stockton, CA
  • Yuba City, CA
  • Austin, TX
  • San Antonio, TX
  • Nashville, TN

Note: These markets encompass adjoining metro areas. San Francisco, for example, also includes Oakland and Hayward.

Source: Realtor.com, Cicely Wedgeworth
http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/the-hottest-housing-markets-of-august-2015/

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Saturday Stats - Silicon Valley's Real Estate Busy Season Finishing Strong

Happy Saturday everyone! Great information from MLSListing Inc.

MLSListings Real Estate and Housing Update
(Monterey, San Benito, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz Counties)

Silicon Valley's Real Estate Busy Season Finishing Strong
Inventory Strengthens in June

Inventory levels rose in June when compared both year-over-year and month-over-month in all reported counties for single family housing. Monterey County had the largest month-over-month growth in inventory as it rose 21% from last May, and Santa Clara County led the way in year-over-year inventory gains with a 32% jump.

June closed sales also rose in all our home counties when compared to last month, and saw a significant increase from June 2014, except San Mateo which was down only 5%. Median prices for single family homes are also well up from last year, but are showing a slowdown in June when compared to last month. Month-over-month June median prices inched up in San Benito and Santa Cruz counties, were slightly down in Monterey and San Mateo counties, and remained virtually the same in Santa Clara County. This recent median price trend paired with strengthening inventory have helped the strong finish to this year’s selling season.

The below chart for total dollars spent compared to closed sales shows the gap between the two data points down from April and coming closer in May.




View Printable PDF version of report HERE



Thursday, July 16, 2015

California Median Home Prices and Sales Jump in June; Median Home Prices up 2.5 Percent to $415,000

Great information folks.



California, — California single-family home and condominium sales gained 8.5 percent to 41,539 in June from 38,143 in May. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 16.4 percent from 35,681 in June 2014. Driving the increase in sales was the 19.9 percent year-over-year increase in non-distressed property sales. Of note to investors, distressed property sales volume has remained nearly unchanged for 18 months and continues to remain a source of opportunity.

“After a mediocre May, California real estate sales took off in June,” said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Economic Research for PropertyRadar.  “The year-over-year jump was the largest since October 2012 likely due to improving economic conditions and fear of rising interest rates this fall.”

The median price of a California home in June was $415,000, the highest since November 2007.  The median price was up $10,000, or 2.5 percent, from $405,000 in May. Within California’s 26 largest counties, 19 counties saw median price increases while 7 experienced price decreases.  The counties with the biggest median price increases were San Joaquin (+8.5 percent), San Diego (+5.7 percent) and Ventura (+5.5 percent).

On a year-over-year basis, the median price of a California home was up 5.1 percent from $395,000 dollars in June 2014. At the county level, year-over-year median price increases exceeded 5 percent in 18 of California’s 26 largest counties and 7 of those experienced double-digit price increases. The counties with the largest price increases were San Mateo (+20.0 percent), San Francisco (+14.7 percent), Sonoma (+11.5 percent) and Solano (+11.3 percent).

“The jump in median home prices this past June surprised us,” said Schnapp.  “Despite affordability issues, demand was high enough to push median prices still higher.”

Flip sales have been steadily increasing since January 2015, up 2.0% for the month and 1.3% over the past 12 months.  More importantly flip says have increased 43.4% since the beginning of the year.  Short sales also posted strong gains in June, up 5.7% for the month and 2.2% year-over-year. Short sales have increased 52.8% since January 2015.

“Flippers and short sellers are finding plenty of willing buyers,” said Schnapp. “With prices already high and moving higher, this market leaves room for investors to jump in and an attractive time to sell.”

In other California housing news:

Cash sales, at their second highest level since May 2014, were up 3.1 percent for the month and up 1.5 percent in the past twelve months.  Cash sales totaled 8,397 in June and represented 20.3 percent of total sales. Cash sales as a percentage of total sales remain high but have been steadily declining since reaching a peak of 40.0 percent of total sales in August 2011. Since then, cash sales are down 42.6 percent.

Foreclosure notices and sales reached their lowest levels in our records dating back to January 2007.  Notices of Default and Notices of Trustee sale fell for a second consecutive month in June, down 11.4 and 10.4 percent for the month, respectively.  Foreclosure sales fell 7.8 percent for the month and are down 16.9 percent year-over-year.
The number of homeowners in a negative equity position continued downward in June thanks to rising prices.  In June approximately 7.7 percent of homeowners, or 670,000, owed more than their home was worth, down 1.5 percent for the month and 39.0 percent from June 2014.  We started 2015 with just over one million California homeowners underwater.
June Institutional Investor LLC and LP purchases totaled 1,320, down 2.4 percent for the month but up 1.3 percent from June 2014. Since reaching a peak in December 2012, institutional investor demand has declined due to the lower return on investment and dwindling supply of distressed properties for sale.  Seasonality notwithstanding, since April 2014 monthly purchases have remained more or less constant at 1,350. Similarly, Trustee Sale purchases by LLC and LPs were down 82.9 percent from their October 2012 peak but have trended mostly sideways since May 2014.


Source: The Registry
http://news.theregistrysf.com/california-median-home-prices-and-sales-jump-in-june-median-home-prices-up-2-5-percent-to-415000/

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Saturday stats

Happy Saturday everyone! Great Santa Clara Count/Silicon Valley real estate market data from MLS Listings Inc.


Silicon Valley Median Home Prices Continue Climbing…but at a Slower Pace
Same trend along the California Pacific Coast

Median home prices rose in most Silicon Valley counties from May 2014 to May of this year. But the month-to-month median prices tell a slightly different story. Only Monterey County showed a significant median price gain from April to May of this year. Other counties saw modest gains or a decline in median price.

Median prices are up in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties 5% and 3% respectively month-over-month, with San Benito and Santa Cruz Counties down 4% and 9% respectively over the same time period. Monterey County showed the only significant change median price from April with a 17% jump. Closed sales were down 12% in Monterey County, 10% in San Mateo County, and down 2% in San Benito County, when comparing May 2015 to last year. Sales increased 12% in Santa Cruz County and just 2% in Santa Clara County over the same time period. Month-over-month numbers for the same data point also show softening for closed sales in May. Compared to last month, sales dropped 2% in Monterey County, 6% in both San Benito and Santa Clara Counties, and 8% in San Mateo County. Sales showed a modest gain of 5% in Santa Cruz County.

The below chart for total dollars spent compared to closed sales shows the gap between the two data points down from April and coming closer in May.

 



Source: MLS Listings Inc.
http://www.mlslistings.com/media-center/resources/-market-data-reports/udt_931_param_detail/184


Download or view full PDF version of the report here.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Why is housing inventory so low?

I am often asked this question by my clients and the general public about why prices are up, particularly here in the Silicon Valley. The article below from Chris Trapani does a better job at explaining it than me. A worthy ready if you are truly interested in why it is a white hot market for sellers.


Why is housing inventory so low?

Parsing the reasons why fewer houses are on the market


There has been a great deal of discussion regarding the consistently low housing inventory levels throughout the nation. Very little, however, has been written about the reasons why inventory levels are so low, especially following the economic disruption of 2008-2011.

Understanding the why can be helpful in predicting how these factors might influence longer-term supply levels and future appreciation potential. This knowledge might also shed light on why inventory might remain constrained over the long run.

In the second half of 2011 we began to see an acceleration in the decline of inventory levels nationally, and since that time the available housing inventory has continued to remain historically low. The graph (figure 1) below highlights the continuous low-inventory environment.

Inman Inventory chart 1

Why is this so? There are numerous conditions that have contributed to this phenomenon and bundled together have created an inventory control dynamic that, as prices rise, only serves to limit the number of homes available for sale.

Capital gains exclusion on primary residence:

Prior to May 7, 1997, the only way you could avoid paying taxes on your home-sale gain was to use the funds to buy another, equal or more-expensive house within two years. I recall my father being motivated by a “move up” mentality. Every few years, he would sell our existing home for a bigger, more expensive property. He would explain to us that he was using tax-free money or “playing with the house’s chips” to leverage into a bigger home that only “someday” he would owe capital gains on. By leveraging his gains, he contributed to the health of the local real estate market. This dynamic created a steady supply and demand equilibrium not only in our local market, but in markets throughout the country.

When he turned 55, another option became available. He could take a once-in-a-lifetime tax exemption of up to $125,000 in capital gains. However, when the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 became law, the rollover or once-in-a-lifetime options were replaced with the current per-sale exclusion amounts.

The Taxpayer Relief Act allows homeowners to take a $250,000 (for singles) or a $500,000 (for married couples) capital gains/appreciation exclusion, which could be used under certain conditions every two years. While the Taxpayer Relief Act eased the home-sale tax burden for millions of homeowners, higher-priced real estate markets experienced an unintended outcome: fewer move-up buyers because their gains on their existing home exceeded the $250K/$500K maximum, thereby creating an unwanted tax burden.

This frozen segment of the real estate pipeline has upset the flow of buying and selling activity. The typical move-up buyer has caused a bottleneck by remaining in place thereby reducing available supply to new entrants. The current law does not create the compelling motivation for individuals to continually move up into “bigger and better” higher-priced properties.

In areas such as Silicon Valley, it is not uncommon for homeowners to exceed the $250K/$500K exclusion amounts if they have owned their primary residence for a period of time. Once a homeowner eclipses this threshold, their motivation to sell in order to move up diminishes as the possibility of a financial tax consequence looms. Many move-up buyers have begun their research only to discover they would be subject to capital gains tax on a portion of their gain — another sacrifice they are not willing to make in order to buy that bigger, better property.

Step-up in basis:

This factor is one of the least understood. Mainly because most people do not have large enough real estate gains to care or they are not old enough to begin pondering their longer-term estate plans and how the timing of their home sale might be impacted by capital gains tax exposure.

For couples, upon the death of one spouse the tax basis of the ownership interest that belonged to one spouse is stepped up, the tax basis of the entire asset might be stepped up to “Fair Market Value” (FMV).* This means a surviving spouse can potentially sell their property and owe only federal capital gains tax on the property’s appreciation after the death of the spouse, which might drastically reduce the tax consequence of the sale.

It is very likely that a good percentage of longtime married homeowners in the higher-priced areas of the U.S. understand this dynamic and will opt to stay and wait, surprisingly to some, for one or the other to pass away before a move makes practical financial sense.

If so, this would mean that potentially thousands of multimillion-dollar properties with swollen appreciation are being held off the market until an unfortunate family loss occurs at some point down the road.

Sustained low-rate environment:

Given the sustained low interest rate environment, many homeowners and investors have either purchased or have now refinanced and are locked into tremendously low interest rates over the past six years. It is highly unlikely that these homes will be coming up for sale anytime soon as a result of this favorable financing.

Value disruption/reset in 08/09:

In addition to the sustained low interest rate environment and its potential damper on those properties actually coming up for sale anytime during the life of their loans, we should mention the “value disruption” factor that occurred between 2007 and 2010.

A number of areas experienced a complete “reset” of values and in some cases to nearly half their peak values. Buyers purchased properties in these marketplaces at significant discounts from the high point, resulting in additional “frozen inventory.”

If you combine the sustained low interest rate climate with the thousands of homes purchased at up to 50 percent discounts or more, it’s unreasonable to expect that these homes will be coming up for sale anytime soon.

In addition, an unprecedented number of institutional investors entered the residential real estate market acquiring large pools and blocks of properties. This inventory is now also frozen and held.

Values not at peak levels across the country:

In some regional areas sales prices have reached or even surpassed the peak levels in 2007. However, this not a national phenomenon; some cities and regions across the U.S. are still below the historical highs of the mid-2000s. Until prices reach peak levels across the board these homeowners won’t be listing their homes for sale.

Sense that values will continue to climb:  

Additionally, there is the current mentality among some homeowners that home values will continue to rise. Very similar to the mindset of people holding on to a stock because they expect it to rise, people believe their properties will increase over time. Right or wrong, this mindset has become another factor in the tightening of inventory. What typically happens is that once homeowners realize the up cycle has turned, they electively decide or are forced to sell due to job loss or other negative economic pressures. This would result in a significant inventory increase.

Where would I go? Move up:

We have already mentioned a few of the constraints on the move-up buyer. The aforementioned forces feed on each other and further exacerbate the move-up opportunity. Lower inventory begets lower inventory; a downward pressure cycle continues. If one cannot find properties to move up to, they will not list or sell their current homes.

This same dilemma plagues retirees finding limited or no options for retirement communities in their local area. This also limits housing supply on the top end of the market since seniors are not motivated to sell unless they know exactly where they are going.

Stunted new development:  

Over the past seven years (since the beginning of 2008) there has been an unparalleled low level of new housing starts (figure 2). This prolonged decrease in new home development dramatically multiplies the low-inventory gap. To further the dilemma, the start-to-finish build cycle is lengthy, often requiring multiple years to plan, approve, build and market, which slows market momentum. Until the new housing development engine gets moving at an accelerated pace it will continue to have a lingering impact.

Inman Inventory chart 2

These major factors have created this extraordinary nationwide low-inventory environment we are currently experiencing. Given the factors above, inventory will remain low for an extended period of time, the natural solution of which remains unknown.



Source: inman, Chris Trapani
http://www.inman.com/2015/04/02/why-is-housing-inventory-so-low/

Monday, March 2, 2015

Are House Prices Beginning to Accelerate Again?


Are House Prices Beginning to Accelerate Again? | Simplifying The Market

In a recent post, we explained that the supply of homes for sale in December was at its lowest level in over a year. The January National Housing Trend Report from realtor.com now reveals that inventory in January has decreased another 6.7% month over month and 8.7% year over year. This is occurring at the same time that buyer activity (demand) remains strong.

This prompted realtor.com’s Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke to report:

“January’s inventory data suggest a continuation of the tightening trend we identified last month in the December data, and with a shortage of inventory typically comes increased home prices. Half of the 200 markets realtor.com tracks experienced year-over-year price increases of at least 6% in January.”

This after the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had already reported in their latest quarterly report:

“The majority of metropolitan areas experienced steady but slightly stronger price growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, behind a decline in housing supply and an uptick in demand fueled by lower interest rates and a stronger job market.”

Bottom Line
Whether you are a first time buyer or a move-up buyer, now may be time to purchase a home – before prices increase any further.

Source: http://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/2015/02/25/are-house-prices-beginning-to-accelerate-again/?a=174979-286f777dfd2c975c125e258872c60f74